Tuesday, July 09, 2013

My Predictions for the City of Detroit

Crystal Ball - Photo by Steve Knight
I'm putting on my swami hat and making four predictions regarding the future of Detroit.

#1. The City of Detroit will go into bankruptcy. (Yes, I know. I'm not going very far out onto the limb with this one.)

#2. It's going to be a long, ugly battle and things are only going to get worse for residents. Quite frankly, I think we've got another six to eight months before we even see what the bottom looks like on this ride.

#3. When the City of Detroit finally does emerge from bankruptcy, the final resolution of its financial problems will look relatively little like what Kevyn Orr has already proposed. The bond holders will still have to take sizable hair cut, but it won't be as large as they are being asked to take now. The other details (e.g., protecting the old Friends of Kwame contracts, tax cuts, etc.) will all go out the window.

#4. Kevyn Orr will not be around when the City of Detroit finally does emerge from bankruptcy.

These are my predictions. I would love to hear what you have to say about them or what prediction you have for the financial future of Detroit.

Update: July 22, 2013 @ 1:08 p.m.
Because Kevyn Orr filed for chapter nine bankruptcy protection earlier than I thought he would, I am going to revise one of my four predictions in this post. I now believe that residents will at least see what the bottom looks like on this bankruptcy roller coaster a good five to six months from now instead of six to eight months.

I continue to believe that my remaining predictions are accurate.

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